Table 1 Overview of parameters used in the base case analysis of cost-effectiveness of varenicline, combined nicotine replacement therapy, or no pharmacotherapy
Parameter | Value | Reference (if applicable) |
|---|---|---|
Prevalence of smokers per age group | 30–39, 61.3%; 40–49, 61.4%; 50–59, 62.3%; 60+, 24.8% | Jaghbir et al. [6] |
Prevalence of smokers intending to quit in the next 30 days | 49% | Abughosh et al. [16] |
Effectiveness (derived 52-week abstinence rates) | ||
Varenicline | 17.9% | |
NRTs | 13.3% | |
No medication (single physician visit) | 5.0% | |
Probability of remaining abstinent having quit by 52 weeks | 95% | Hughes et al. [28] |
Risk of relapse after one year of abstinence | 8% | Hughes et al. [28] |
Unaided quit in subsequent years | 2.9% | Jaghbir et al. [6] |
Jordanian life table numbers were used to obtain the gender-specific death rate for each age group. We then used Taylor et al.’s study to derive the hazard ratio of death for smokers in each group, plus the hazard for death among quitters according to the time since they quit (Appendix 1) | 30–34 years, 0.005 × 1.6875; 35–39 years, 0.007 × 1.6875; 40–44 years, 0.011 × 2.34; 45–49 years, 0.018 × 2.34; 50–54 years, 0.03 × 2.82; 55–59 years, 0.051 × 2.82; 60–64 years, 0.081 × 2.80; 65–69 years, 0.129 × 2.80; 70–74 years, 0.205 × 2.52 | |
Costs of treatment (US dollars) | Pharmaceutical unit prices retrieved from the Jordanian Food and Drug Administration (JFDA) [29] | |
Varenicline, physician visits (3 months) | 270.00 | |
NRTs, physician visits (3 months) | 192.00 | |
No medication (three physician visits) | 21.00 | |
Discount rate | 3% | Attema et al. [19] |
Cost-effectiveness threshold | JD3116/$4395 (generous); JD1636/$2307 (conservative)*; JD8000 by WHO | Woods et al. and |